A forecast from Gartner on virtual desktops made my eyes pop:
The worldwide hosted virtual desktop (HVD) market will accelerate through 2013 to reach 49 million units, up from more than 500,000 units in 2009, according to Gartner Inc. Worldwide HVD revenue will grow from about $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion in 2009, which is less than 1 percent of the worldwide professional PC market, to $65.7 billion in 2013, which will be equal to more than 40 percent of the worldwide professional PC market. (http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=920814)
This is a hefty claim for several reasons. First, hosted virtual desktop, often referred to as “thin client computing,” is nothing new. Enterprise IT organizations have been evaluating or using thin clients for decades in one capacity or another, so it is interesting to see this sudden and explosive expectation set by Gartner which in my opinion reflects the fervor surround cloud computing. Second and related, this forecast dwarfs the total web hosting market almost by an order of magnitude! As such, I suggest we all take it with several grains of salt. However and third, what if this forecast is even marginally correct? If so, this represents a HUGE opportunity for Hosters to offer virtual desktops as a service, and we have already seen select providers come to market with an offering. For a great example, check out ThinkGrid (www.thinkgrid.com).
On paper, the notion of hosted desktops virtually sells itself. Powerful desktops and laptops can be replaced with thin clients and netbooks to minimize hardware spend. No more software licensing fees. Maintenance and PC-support is reduced. What’s not to love? In practice, however, there have a number of issues holding this market back over the years, including application latency and end-user confidence.
I find it hard to believe that Gartner’s forecast will hit the mark although I do think the time is right for the “revenge of virtual desktops.” The improvements made in last-mile broadband and application acceleration at the edge combined with the psychological shift that cloud computing has created around how computing could and should work makes this a service Hosters should strongly consider adding to their portfolio sooner than later.
About Joshua Beil
Joshua Beil (@joshbeil) is the Director of Market Strategy and Research for Parallels, the leading provider of automation and virtualization software to the web hosting community. Previously, Josh was the Director of Social Media & Technology at a Level 3 Communications [Nasdaq: LVLT] where he provided strategic and tactical sales support. Before that, Josh was CEO and cofounder of Skywave Broadband, Inc, the largest commercial WiFi service provider in Hawaii. He was named one of Pacific Business News' Forty Under 40 for 2006, and in 2005, he was named a High Tech Leader by the Pacific Technology Foundation. Before co-founding Skywave, Mr. Beil was VP of Research and Development for the market research boutique, Tier 1 Research, where he covered the Internet infrastructure sector as an analyst, and negotiated and sold subscriptions to Tier 1's research services. Josh has also previously served as the Senior Analyst for Exodus Communications as well as the internationally known market research firm, IDC. He holds a Certificate in E-Business from UCSC Extension, and he graduated with honors from the University of California at Santa Cruz with a major in Psychology.
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