One of the most discussed comments at this year’s Hosting Transformation Summit was Lou Honick’s question to Michael van Dijken asking whether his focus on desktop software was self serving when Lou was running all his applications virtually through his browser. I’ve thought about this issue a lot since the Office 2.0 conference, where everything we did was done through the browser. Throughout the transformation summit I kept discussing this concept with people I met. I think Lou is wrong. I don’t think desktop applications are dead (or dying). While I think that technology is moving in the direction where applications can be browser based, there’s one significant problem with everything in the browser: bandwidth. Simply put, unless you’re tethered to the desk and have a fat pipe coming in, using browser based applications is hideously frustrating. The first issue is that wireless connectivity approaching broadband speeds is simply not available. Sure, at the Office 2.0 conference all the apps worked perfectly on our iPhones. Then again the organizer had set up over 40 wireless access points in the main ballroom alone. That simply isn’t present anywhere else. Indeed, I know of no business who relies even to a small extent on a wireless office network – the security concerns are too great. Even with a mobile carrier’s broadband access card installed in my computer, I still don’t get the speed I get when I’m “plugged in.” This doesn’t even consider the fact that most of the time wireless carriers are about as reliable as your shiftless second cousin who just got released from Sing Sing.
So what needs to change before Lou is right? I think it’s simple: everyone’s greed factor needs to be turned down about 90% and wireless needs to be secure. I’m sorry, but who among us can pay $11.95 for broadband access in our hotel room, $12.60 for wireless access in the hotel conference center, $4 for the first 30 minutes and $1 for each additional five minutes at Starbucks, and $8.50 in the airport? Naturally this is “per device.” Woe be to the poor bleeding edge person who wants to use their laptop and their iPhone. Cell companies are guilty of this as well: fees for broadband access are prohibitively expensive, and that money doesn’t seem to be going to build faster networks. On-line application companies also need to find a different pricing strategy. While per month, per user, may work for some products, like exchange, it doesn’t take many users, or many months, before a license for Microsoft Office seems like a bargain compared to on-line office applications. Finally, their needs to be some pricing competition for broadband. Most businesses can’t afford to pay for a fat pipe into their business to support on-line applications.
Does anyone have this right? Phil Shih and I agreed that Zimbra has it right. With Zimbra you have the ability to use their products both on-line and off line. As a result, you’re not dependent on the vagaries of our current fragile wireless infrastructure. Do I hope Lou is right? Yes, and I think some day he will be. This will be a good thing for hosting companies. For the next five years however, I don’t think desktop applications are going away.
